TRACS Shipping Activity Overview

Below we show some of the seaborne trade and shipping demand data extracted from TRACS – Oceanic’s proprietary vessel tracking system.

Some of the interesting points to note for 2024 are:

  • Shipping demand in terms of the tonnage exported is only marginally above the  pre-Covid-19 levels – (Chart 1 below)

  • Shipping demand in tonne-mile terms is at an all-time high and growth in 2024 is continuing the very strong growth from 2023. The exceptional growth in 2024 is driven by the effective closure of the Suez Canal and

  • the continuing low water levels in the Panama Canal. This in addition to the continuing growth in commodity exports from the Atlantic Basin to the Pacific  – (Charts 2 and 3)

  • The longer trade routes lead to more cargo in transit – boosting effective inventories of several commodities – (Chart 4)

  • The fleet is continuing to slow down to reduce fuel consumption and emissions and meet increasingly stringent environmental criteria  (Chart 5)

  • The congestion experienced during and in the immediate aftermath of  Covid-19 has normalised and released additional fleet capacity to meet the increasing tonne-mile demand  (Chart 6)

  • The Panama Canal has suffered drought conditions since the middle of last year - this has led to a considerable reduction in the canal traffic which has been rerouted round the Capes of Good Hope or Cape Horn  – this is predicted to last into 2024 (Chart 7)

  • The traffic passing through the Suez Canal is continuing to drop  in  2024 to date - forcing more traffic to go round the Cape of Good Hope (Chart 8)

Chart 1

This shows the total tonnage of cargo exported and imported which is a measure of demand for cargo to be shipped.

Chart 2

Tonne Miles is the total tonnage of cargo being carried multiplied by the distance the vessels travel on a daily basis. This is a measure of the “true “ demand for shipping services incorporating the amount of cargo along with the distance the cargo is carried. The Tonne Mile demand for shipping in 2024 is at an all time high and is showing a clear gap over previous years.

Chart 3

This chart shows the tonne mile data as a % growth year on year, this removes the majority of the seasonality from the data. Early 2020 saw a big drop in tonne miles with the early Covid impact, especially on China. Late 2020 and early 2021 saw a sharp increase in tonne mile demand and we are now seeing the strongest demand growth in the last decade.

Chart 4

This chart shows the total daily amount of all cargo types loaded aboard the global fleet at any moment in time. Cargo includes crude oil and products, dry bulk, containers, LNG, LPG, vehicles and chemicals. This metric of shipping demand incorporates delays due to port congestion and slow steaming of the fleet as well as floating storage.

Chart 5

The average speed of the fleet is another metric we follow, this chart shows average speed of world's seagoing fleet measured in knots. The speed is in structural decline reflecting both a rising cost of fuel and the tightening emissions regulations forcing the fleet to slow down to reduce emissions.  In the short term however, when utilisation tightens and rates improve then vessels will speed up to take advantage of the higher earnings potential, so optimum speed is a dynamic factor.

Chart 6

Congestion has been an important factor over the last few years as Covid prevented the normal operation of ships and ports during 2020 – 2021. In 2022 – 2023 we have seen the congestion unwind - making the fleet more efficient again and able to absorb the additional demand experienced in 2023 and 2024.

Chart 7

The Panama Canal has suffered drought conditions since the middle of last year

Chart 8

The Houthi attacks on shipping is forcing more of the  Suez Canal traffic to  go round the Cape of Good Hope